They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters
From The Dailymail
On the eve of election night, the New York Times’s polling desk projected that Hillary Clinton had an 85 percent chance of winning the U.S. presidential election.
By 9:30 p.m. on Tuesday Clinton’s numbers started cratering quickly – until, within the hour, Donald J. Trump was favored by the New York Times to win by over 77 percent.
He quickly picked up wins by surprising margins in major swing states such as Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin, and eventually swept to victory.
How did the pollsters get it so wrong?
‘We are trying to puzzle this out. Almost all polls were wrong, national and battleground states. Why?’ said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, who had predicted Clinton would win with 322 electoral votes.
‘This is worse than “Dewey Defeats Truman,”‘ said Sabato. ‘There were only a few polls back then. At least 90 percent of hundreds of surveys were wrong. Those of us who model from polls use their data; garbage in, garbage out.’
‘We’ll be studying this for many years to come. Your Brexit polls really weren’t off by more than a few percent.
‘Our polls were dramatically off,’ he added. ‘And let me add, today’s exit poll had Clinton winning almost everywhere at 5 pm. No doubt they’ve ‘adjusted’ it.’
Among those who called it wrong immediately prior to the election were CBS and ABC News/Washington Post, as well as a CNN poll of polls, which all forecast a four-point lead for Clinton.
Bloomberg calculated a three-point lead for the Democrat, while Rasmussen estimated two.
Monmouth University and NBC News/Survey Monkey predicted even bigger leads of six points for the former secretary of state.
The only two major national surveys to call a Trump victory were the USC/LA Times and the IBD/TIPP tracking polls. The LA Times poll was also an outlier back in 2012, when it correctly called a win for Obama.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight – which has correctly called the previous two elections – forecast a 66 per cent likelihood that Clinton will take the White House.
Away from the popular vote, electoral college forecasts were also misplaced. Emerson College saw Clinton winning 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215, among other studies predicting a Democrat landslide.
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