But despite the razor-thin margin separating Oz and McCormick, a national study of elections from 2000 to 2019 found only three instances in which the leader was overtaken by the second-place candidate. In each of those elections, the initial margin separating the candidates was much closer than the margin separating the candidates in the Republican primary this month.
“It is common to expect some votes to shift when you do a hand recount. In this case, the candidates are separated by about 1,000 votes and in this case, we should expect a shift of about 100 votes,” Deb Otis of FairVote said in an interview Wednesday. “It is possible, but certainly an uphill battle for David McCormick.”
Otis, who is senior research analyst at the nonpartisan organization, FairVote, is the author of a 2020 study that looked at the previous 20 years of statewide elections across the United States.
Only 31 times did a statewide race go to a recount. Of those, three saw the initial leader give up the advantage and lose the election, Otis said. Each had initial margins of less than 0.05%, her study found.
The difference between Oz and McCormick is about 0.09%.
