Let’s start with a fact: Donald Trump is losing the presidential election to Hillary Clinton right now. The polls showing Trump trailing Clinton nationally and in the swing states are not cooked or skewed. If you can’t admit this, you’re doing yourself a disservice.
But here’s another disservice: pundits are now consistently declaring the race finished. “It’s over” is a common commentary on Twitter whenever a new poll comes out, particularly among conservatives. Meanwhile, GOP “insiders” are demanding the RNC accept a landslide Trump defeat as a foregone conclusion and spend its cash elsewhere.
Here’s the thing, though: you can easily make a case that Clinton is still enjoying the spoils of her convention bounce, sailing through the summer doldrums of August, and that come September the election will once again tighten.
The problem is that no one actually wants to make that case. The insistence by influencers on both the right and left that Trump is going to lose is partially driven by their internal hope that Trump actually loses, an irritating groupthink mentality among the punditry that Sean Trende identified back in June.
My Twitter feed has devolved into a mélange of undifferentiated opinions explaining not only why Donald Trump shouldn’t win this election, but also how and why it can’t possibly happen. I don’t just mean an overall take that he’s likely to lose. I mean a complete and utter rejection of any evidence proffered that might point in a direction that is favorable to Trump…
In other words, these pundits are not just offering their professional assessment that Trump won’t win: they are also determined to beat out every last glimmer of hope from anyone who wants to believe he still has a chance.
Like I said above, Trump is currently losing. At the moment, there’s little evidence to suggest the election is trending in Trump’s direction. But there are plenty of rays of hope that this race will look far different in the fall than it does now, if you’re looking for them.
Clinton’s lead is big, but it’s not that big. She is currently leading by 5.8 points in the Real Clear Politics average; that’s a far cry from the 12-point lead she held in March, and 2 points down from where she was just a week ago. But what about the electoral college? Let’s look. Clinton is ahead of Trump by less than a point in Iowa; she’s ahead by only 2 points in North Carolina; by less than 3 points in Ohio and Nevada; by less than 5 points in Florida. These numbers are leads, but they’re hardly impenetrable firewalls. Nor has she cracked 50% nationally or in the states, making her vulnerable to swings among the undecided or soft-support voters.
Read Full Story At Independent Journal Review