White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein told Fox News in a recent interview that inflation is likely to stay elevated longer than previously expected.
Bernstein told the outlet that he thinks the rate of inflation will come in at around 4 percent for 2021, before falling to 2.3 percent in 2022. He did not say when, precisely, he expects the rate will tick down next year, but noted inflation would likely stay high into the middle of next year.
His expectations closely track the Fed’s most recent predictions. While Bernstein did not specify which inflation measure he was referring to, his estimates are in line with the most recent Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation projections from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s policy-setting body.
After its most recent Sept. 21–22 meeting, the FOMC issued a revised set of economic projections (pdf) that estimate the PCE inflation rate at 4.2 percent for 2021, a sharp upward revision from June’s projection of 3.4 percent.
For 2022, Fed policymakers expect PCE inflation of 2.2 percent, up from an earlier projection of 2.1 percent.
